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Except, we've owned the van since 99

I'm convinced it has to be something in the cluster, because the VSS is accurate and the cluster is supposed to simply display the calculated speed.
In your case I agree, the gauge itself in the cluster, because of the "incedent" you mentioned. You know the cause, where, when, how and so forth. It has been off since that time.
Dominican has not replied. If he bought the van with that issue it is very easy to determine what gear ratio either by reading the ring gear itself or counting revolutions and doing the math.
 
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